Hot Secs

President-elect Obama doesn’t get to chillax or fart around for a couple of weeks and enjoy his victory. He literally has hundreds of presidential appointments to make ranging from uber-important positions (Secretary of Defense) to positions no one gives a rip about (Deputy Assistant Undersecretary of Housing and Urban Development for the western Kansas/southeastern Colorado region… or something) Not only does he need to find people with enough experience to do these jobs, but also has to find people with enough hopeyness and changitude to appease those who voted for him. So who’s who?

Chief of Staff: Rahm Emanuel (confirmed)
Rahm Emanuel is a veteran of the Clinton Administration and latter became a congressman from Chicago. Rahm is a colorful character as all of the following facts are actually true: originally went to college to learn dance; lost part of his finger to a meat slicer when in high school; is affectionately known as “Rahmbo” for his take-no-prisoners attitude and liberal use of the word ‘fuck.’ Obama got a bit of grief for choosing Rahm since Rahm (pictured, smugly) apparently doesn’t exude hope and change, however, Obama needs a guy like this. What happens when you make the sunshine-and-rainbows person do the dirty work? You get Martha Stewart, that’s what. How did things turn out for her? Anyway, the Chief of Staff keeps all of the little minions working hard and staying on message.

Secretary of Defense: Robert Gates, Chuck Hagel, or someone else…
Obama has a chance to select a Republican for this position, giving him big bipartisan cred. Current Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was the guy who took Donald Rumsfeld’s clusterfuckery in Iraq and made it somewhat better. Meanwhile, Chuck Hagel is a retiring Republican senator who has been a big critic of Bush’s foreign policy.

Secretary of Treasury: Henry Paulson, Larry Summers, Timothy Geithner, or someone else…
In addition to getting his signature on all of the new printed money, the new Secretary of Treasury gets to handle the worst economic whatever in the last 70 years. Some say current secretary Henry Paulson might be asked to stay on to see the crisis through, but many think he was partly responsible for this mess getting as bad as it did. Larry Summer actually held this position under Clinton, but falls into a new pickle every time he opens his mouth, thus everyone hates him. Geithner is the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. My money is on Geithner, because he’s not the other two guys.

Secretary of State: Hillary Clinton, Bill Richardson, John Kerry, or someone else…
Hillary got the message out that she could take a call about some awful international situation at 3am. Obama listened and interviewed her for the job this past week. But can Obama trust Hillary? It’s not like he still needs her bitter supporters to vote for him anymore. Bill Richardson is a governor and a former UN ambassador and is quite jolly looking which may help to disarm our enemies in tough meetings. John Kerry’s name is being thrown around for this position, probably by John Kerry himself. GO AWAY JOHN KERRY FOREVER.

More Math Porn for You to Enjoy

Actual results vs. Predicted results:

(The number to the right shows how far off I was from getting the state’s winner correct.)

Alabama: McCain 61, Obama 38 (Nailed it!)
Alaska: McCain 55, Obama 44 (Palin still loved, apparently. -7)
Arizona: McCain 53, Obama 46 (-1)
Arkansas: McCain 54, Obama 45 (What happened to “Clinton’s” state? -5)
California: Obama 63, McCain 36 (Loves Obama. Gay marriage? Not so much… -2)
Colorado: Obama 52, McCain 47 (South Park election episode was awesome. -1)
Connecticut: Obama 57, McCain 42 (Yep… -3)
Delaware: Obama 64, McCain, 35 (Bidenmania going global! -3)
District of Columbia: Obama 91, McCain 8 (91% not enough? -2)
Florida: Obama 50, McCain 49 (Pretty close. -1)
Georgia: McCain 52, Obama 47 (Bullseye!)
Hawaii: Obama 65, McCain 34 (What is this? DC? -7)
Idaho: McCain 66, Obama 33 (Wow, my first overestimate. +5)
Illinois: Obama 61, McCain 38 (Very close. -1)
Indiana: McCain 51, Obama 48 (WRONG! Obama won by 1%. -2)
Iowa: Obama 56, McCain 43 (Close. -2)
Kansas: McCain 58, Obama 41 (Close again. +1)
Kentucky: McCain 57, Obama 42 (Lucky in Kentucky. -1)
Louisiana: McCain 53, Obama 46 (Stupid Katrina! -6)
Maine: Obama 54, McCain 45 (McCain not so strong. -4)
Maryland: Obama 60, McCain 39 (Close. -1)
Massachusetts: Obama 58, McCain 41 (Bit of a slip. -4)
Michigan: Obama 56, McCain 43 (Almost! -1)
Minnesota: Obama 55, McCain 44 (Close again. +1)
Mississippi: McCain 52, Obama 47 (Oops! -5)
Missouri: McCain 51, Obama 48 (McCain by 6,000 votes. +1)
Montana: Obama 50, McCain 49 (WRONG! Big sky goes for Mac. -1)
Nebraska: McCain 59, Obama 40 (Obama wins Omaha’s electoral vote. Nebraska splits its votes by congressional district. +2)
Nevada: Obama 52, McCain 47 (Player wins. -3)
New Hampshire: Obama 52, McCain 47 (Close. -2)
New Jersey: Obama 56, McCain 43 (Very close. -1)
New Mexico: Obama 55, McCain 44 (Still good. -2)
New York: Obama 60, McCain 39 (On a roll. -2)
North Carolina: McCain 51, Obama 48 (WRONG! NC is blue? Wow. -2)
North Dakota: McCain 52, Obama 47 (Back on track. -1)
Ohio: Obama 51, McCain 48 (Buckeye Bullseye.)
Oklahoma: McCain 65, Obama 34 (Awesome. -1)
Oregon: Obama 58, McCain 41 (Awesome. -1)
Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 46 (Kinda awesome. -2)
Rhode Island: Obama 61, McCain 38 (Sweet. -2)
South Carolina: McCain 53, Obama 46 (Sweeter. -1)
South Dakota: McCain 57, Obama 42 (As close as the other Dakota in real life. +4)
Tennessee: McCain 56, Obama 43 (Cool. -1)
Texas: McCain 57, Obama 42 (Bush’s state getting bluer. +2)
Utah: McCain 67, Obama 32 (Utah not as red. +4)
Vermont: Obama 60, McCain 39 (Whoa. Way off. -7)
Virginia: Obama 51, McCain 48 (Virginia is for lovers… of Obama. -2)
Washington: Obama 55, McCain 44 (Eh. -3)
West Virginia: McCain 56, Obama 43 (Spot on!)
Wisconsin: Obama 54, McCain 45 (Pretty close. -2)
Wyoming: McCain 59, Obama 40 (Cheney’s home state still very red. -6)

Predicted Total: Obama 341, McCain 197
Actual Total: Obama 365, McCain 173

On average, I was off by 2.4% per state. Not bad, but I did call three states incorrectly.

So is Swing State done? Of course not! Keep checking back here for updates all of the way through Inauguration Day.

Everyone’s Waiting

Well, Swing State is back from the future and our flux capacitor is tapped out. Here are the “predicted” results from the 2008 Presidential Election (in percents):

Alabama: McCain 61, Obama 38 (No kidding)
Alaska: McCain 55, Obama 44 (Not a big blowout in Alaska for McCain/Palin)
Arizona: McCain 53, Obama 46 (Latinos break huge for Obama in McCain’s home state)
Arkansas: McCain 54, Obama 45 (Clinton’s home state is McCain Country)
California: Obama 63, McCain 36 (Funny how no one campaigns in the biggest state)
Colorado: Obama 52, McCain 47 (Denver area breaks for Obama)
Connecticut: Obama 57, McCain 42 (Closer than some expect)
Delaware: Obama 64, McCain, 35 (Bidenmania hits Delaware)
District of Columbia: Obama 91, McCain 8 (Not a “swing district”)
Florida: Obama 50, McCain 49 (If it’s close, it must be Florida)
Georgia: McCain 52, Obama 47 (African American vote makes it close)
Hawaii: Obama 65, McCain 34 (Barack’s birthplace still loves him)
Idaho: McCain 66, Obama 33 (No, Udaho)
Illinois: Obama 61, McCain 38 (Obama wins home state? That’s unpossible!)
Indiana: McCain 51, Obama 48 (Closest it’s been for the Dems in years, but no cigar)
Iowa: Obama 56, McCain 43 (Obama like ethanol, Obama wins Iowa)
Kansas: McCain 58, Obama 41 (Dust in the Wind)
Kentucky: McCain 57, Obama 42 (Bluegrass state goes red)
Louisiana: McCain 53, Obama 46 (African American vote makes it close)
Maine: Obama 54, McCain 45 (McCain makes it closer)
Maryland: Obama 60, McCain 39 (Mmm… Crab)
Massachusetts: Obama 58, McCain 41 (Mmm… Pilgrims)
Michigan: Obama 56, McCain 43 (Mmm… high unemployment)
Minnesota: Obama 55, McCain 44 (Home of Palin’s accent goes for Obama)
Mississippi: McCain 52, Obama 47 (All depends on African American turnout)
Missouri: McCain 51, Obama 48 (Won’t get called until late at night)
Montana: Obama 50, McCain 49 (Upset for Obama)
Nebraska: McCain 59, Obama 40 (Looks like Iowa, votes like Idaho)
Nevada: Obama 52, McCain 47 (Best bet in Nevada is Obama)
New Hampshire: Obama 52, McCain 47 (Closer than polls show)
New Jersey: Obama 56, McCain 43 (Best bet in New Jersey is Obama)
New Mexico: Obama 55, McCain 44 (Latinos big for Obama)
New York: Obama 60, McCain 39 (Home of Hillary like Barack)
North Carolina: McCain 51, Obama 48 (McCain holds once solid Republican state)
North Dakota: McCain 52, Obama 47 (McCain holds once solid Republican state)
Ohio: Obama 51, McCain 48 (Results not announced until late at night)
Oklahoma: McCain 65, Obama 34 (OK)
Oregon: Obama 58, McCain 41 (Boregon!)
Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 46 (Oh, McCain tried so hard for this one)
Rhode Island: Obama 61, McCain 38 (Not an island)
South Carolina: McCain 53, Obama 46 (Not as close as North Carolina)
South Dakota: McCain 57, Obama 42 (Not as close as North Dakota)
Tennessee: McCain 56, Obama 43 (No love for Gore’s party in Gore’s state)
Texas: McCain 57, Obama 42 (McCain’s biggest state he wins)
Utah: McCain 67, Obama 32 (Wow, think if it was Romney on the ticket)
Vermont: Obama 60, McCain 39 (Ben and Jerry like Barack and Joe)
Virginia: Obama 51, McCain 48 (First time in 44 years it goes blue)
Washington: Obama 55, McCain 44 (Tossed salad and scrambled eggs)
West Virginia: McCain 56, Obama 43 (Insert joke here)
Wisconsin: Obama 54, McCain 45 (Brett Favre doesn’t get as many write-ins this year)
Wyoming: McCain 59, Obama 40 (Boroming!)

Final: Obama gets 341 electoral votes, McCain gets 197 electoral votes. We’ll post how close we were after the election. Now, GO VOTE!!!

Forgetting Sarah Palin

If the polls you see today become the actual results of the election, Barack Obama will be the 44th President. Therefore, we only have a couple of days to enjoy the most talked about vice presidential candidate in a generation, Sarah Palin. Let’s bask in her glow while we can… before that glow is snuffed out and she crawls into the political abyss.

Terrible scenarios bounced around in the minds of Democrats (and most independents) of a potential Palin presidency brought about by the untimely death, but not unforeseen death, of 5-time cancer patient John McCain (get cancer a 6th time, receive another cancer at equal or lesser value). Would she have gone to war with Russia like she alluded to in her Katie Couric interview? Or was it the Charlie Gibson interview? Fuck, there was only like three interviews, so I should know. What about Iran? Canada? Would she have popped out another two or three kids to complete her all-Palin hockey team? Who knows! And we never will know.

Losing Sarah Palin will be hard enough, but the pain of losing her will be offset by the awkwardness of her concession speech, if she gives one. America will watch as one of the most over-confident people to ever exist has to admit she lost. John McCain, like him or not, is sure to give some sort of conciliatory speech where he is truly congratulatory to Barack Obama and is thankful to all that have helped the McCain campaign. Palin, as a very ambitious person, will already have her sights on the 2012 election and will see herself as the chief criticizer of an Obama administration. In a way, Palin will justify her loss as a win for herself because now she has tremendous national exposure.

Later next week, it will be time to forget Sarah Palin. Sure, we’ll still have Joe Biden who will most assuredly provide countless verbal gaffes that will make you wonder, “I get what he’s saying. I kinda agree with it. But, damn, that came out really really bad.” Will an Obama/Biden administration be almost boring compared to the antics of a McCain/Palin government? Sure, Palin would have been great for late night comedy, much like George “Man-Palin” Bush has been. But might America be better off to not have a Vice President Palin than to have those few extra chuckles during The Daily Show?

Worst of all, Sarah Palin has seriously hurt the future of the Republican Party. As the Republicans can tell you, absolute power corrupts absolutely. As well-intentioned the Democratic Party wishes to be, a party with a crippled opposition has the potential to go a little overboard.

Soon, Sarah Palin will pack up her $150,000 worth of campaign clothes, pregnant children, that sassy attitude and go back to the tundra. She’ll have to go back, deal with Troopergate and everything else, but without the fancy lower-48 McCain campaign lawyers. One thing is for sure: she will come back, unless America chooses to forget her.

One Election Eve, come back to Swing State for the final predictions.

The Long Painful Death March to 270

Even though you may be as addicted to the election as I am (ok, you’re not), I’m sure you can’t wait for this M-Fer to be over. Wanna know how it will end? SPOILER ALERT BELOW!

In the Electoral College, there are 538 total electors. A candidate needs 270 to win (or 269 to tie, but let’s not dive into that nightmare of a scenario). As of today, October 28 (one week left), the polls show Obama with 364 electoral votes to McCain’s 157 with 17 votes tied. See below (Obama = blue, McCain = red):

Obama’s path to vicorty is easy: win most of the states that he’s leading in already. In this map from electoral-vote.com, dark colors show states where the candidate leads by 10% or more. In the dark blue states alone, Obama has 260 electoral votes already. So what’s McCain to do?

McCain’s campaign has publicly stated that is giving up on a few states won by W in 2004, namely New Mexico and Colorado. McCain has pinned all of his hopes for victory on winning Pennsylvania. How are things going for McCain in Pennsylvania? Let’s take a look at a graph from pollster.com:
As you can logically see, John McCain’s campaign has lost its collective mind. In order to lose Pennsylvania, Barack Obama would have to publicly stab an Amish guy on stage at a rally while wearing a Cleveland Browns jersey. It’s just not happening.

So, if you add up the states that McCain has given up on or is behind by more than 10%, you have 269 votes, enough for Obama to tie the Electoral College at worst (NO! I’m not talking about tiebreakers!). Why do we still care about this election then if we seem to know how it ends? An old saying goes that, “Democrats know how to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.”

Next Time: “Forgetting Sarah Palin”

Masterdebaters, Part 3

Smarts… One Liners… Burns… and WTFs… from last week’s debate…

Smarts (or Not)
Obama…
…wants to “invest” in health care. Basically, you get better preventative care, thus you don’t get sick as much, thus you don’t burden the health care system with your disgusting germs.
McCain…
…wants to do something about those f-ing abandoned homes in your neighborhood. You know, the ones that have been on the market for like a million months? The ones that prevent you from even considering selling your own home and make the market in the area so bad, even though a crackhead moved in next door and uses your azaleas as a urnal. Well, McCain wants to buy your f-ing home! Supposedly, with magic money from heaven.

One Liners
Obama:
1) “I don't mind being attacked for the next three weeks. What the American people can’t afford, though, is four more years of failed economic policies.” Here, Obama is totally wrong. We haven’t been going though a period of ‘failed economic policies’. We’ve been going through an orgy of financial clusterfuckery of Caligula-esque proportions. Big difference.
2) “We should try to prevent unintended pregnancies by providing appropriate education to our youth, communicating that sexuality is sacred and that they should not be engaged in cavalier activity.” Cavalier activity is all the rage right now with the kids, but the term might be confusing:

Example of Cavalier Activity: “Pulling Out”
Example of a Cavalier: LeBron James

McCain:
“Senator Obama, I am not President Bush. If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago.” Are you kidding? That election was pre-Katrina, pre-economic meltdown, pre-Senator George Allen saying “macaca”. This election seems to be much easier for Democrats (I bet I just jinxed it).

Burns!
Obama:
After McCain said he wanted a total spending freeze and that Sarah Palin would advocate for disabled children: “I do want to just point out that autism, for example, or other special needs will require some additional funding, if we’re going to get serious in terms of research. That is something that every family that advocates on behalf of disabled children talk about. And if we have an across-the-board spending freeze, we’re not going to be able to do it.” Thus, John McCain hates Sarah Palin’s children. Finally, someone’s willing to admit it! I hate that I know their names! I could have use that part of my brain for some better useless trivia than for Track, Bristol, Willow, Piper, and Trig!
McCain:
“I don't think there's any doubt that Senator Obama wants to restrict trade and he wants to raise taxes. And the last president of the United States that tried that was Herbert Hoover, and we went from a deep recession into a depression.” BUT, Hoover did get a dam named after him… so there!

WTF?
In this debate, you got introduced to the concept of “Joe the Plumber.” The concept is much prettier for John McCain than the real thing. Concept Joe is a hard working business owner whose good sized plumbing business would be paying more taxes under Obama. Actual Joe, doesn’t actually own a business, would save more money under Obama if he wanted to start one up, and owes Ohio $1,200 is back taxes. Concept Joe wants to pay less tax. Actual Joe wants to pay no tax.

Masterdebaters, Part 2

Editor’s Note: No computer virus will EVER stop Swing State. Stopping Swing State is like stopping democracy. Well, a virus did slow it down a bit and delay it, so I guess stopping Swing State can be stopped for a while, much like a third world democracy (I’m looking at you, Democratic Republic of Congo!).

Anyway, Smarts… One Liners… Burns… and WTFs… from last week’s debate… ugh…

Smarts (or Not)
Obama…
…pointed out that no nation has ever been able to maintain a huge military presence around the world when the economy of that country is going nowhere. Up Your’s, British Empire!
McCain…
1) thinks social security is not that tough to fix (we’ll get to this one in a sec).
2) thinks he can get bin Laden. Exact quote: “I'll get Osama bin Laden, my friends. I'll get him. I know how to get him.”
These are what one might call “bite-you-in-the-ass” remarks. Basically, if McCain wins (no really, imagine!) and doesn’t fix social security even though it’s SOOO easy and doesn’t capture bin Laden even though he supposedly knows just how to do it, he’s toast in 2012. He knows this, but he’s not concerned about 2012. He’s concerned about 2008 and is willing to say anything to win.

One Liners
Obama:
When Obama criticized McCain’s tax policies: “I think the "Straight Talk Express" lost a wheel on that one.” What other metaphors centering on McCain big bus are out there to use? ‘Got lost’? ‘Ran out of gas’? ‘Has a check engine light flashing’? ‘Has an issue with the fuel injection system’? Endless possibilities.
McCain:
“When times are tough, we need a steady hand at the tiller.” The tiller? This is what you call “showing your age.” McCain could have reached out to the youngsters if he had said, “When times are tough, we need a steady hand at the Wiimote.”

Burns!
Obama:
“Well, you know, Sen. McCain, in the last debate and today, again, suggested that I don't understand. It's true. There are some things I don't understand. I don't understand how we ended up invading a country that had nothing to do with 9/11, while Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda are setting up base camps and safe havens to train terrorists to attack us.” It’s like catching a cannonball fired at you, loading it into your own cannon, and firing it back.
McCain:
“He (Obama) voted for nearly a billion dollars in pork barrel earmark projects, including, by the way, $3 million for an overhead projector at a planetarium in Chicago, Illinois.” To be fair, John McCain personally knew Galileo in the 1600s… and thought he was totally overrated.

WTF?
Obama said if Osama bin Laden was in Pakistan (our ally), and Pakistan couldn’t or wouldn’t take him out, America would go in and do it. McCain is super opposed to this idea. Is there something I’m missing? McCain says we shouldn’t telegraph our intentions to the enemy. Just a guess: I think bin Laden knows we want to kill him. If not, that guy is probably a bit overworked and should take a sick day (forever).